Glenigan Index: Construction Back in Decline

• Construction project starts fall 4% for the 3 months to April following 4 months of growth
• Residential construction flat as fall in social housing project starts cancels impact of growth in private housing project starts
• Yorkshire & the Humber and the East of England were the worst hit regions seeing year on year falls of 30% in construction project starts

Review

The underlying value of construction projects starting on site in the three months to April fell 4% year on year according to new data from Glenigan. “This is the largest year on year decline we have seen since the 5% fall in May 2011 according to the provisional data” said James Abraham, economist, Glenigan.

Residential construction was flat year on year for the three month to April. “The 15% increase in private housing project starts was met by a 17% decline in social housing activity as private sector growth failed to outpace public sector cuts” commented Abraham.

Abraham continued “There was a similar pattern of private sector growth versus public sector cuts in non-residential construction. Office and industrial building is responding to a shortage in supply following three years of limited building and supermarket investment remains high. However, the health, education and community & amenity all fell, as public sector cuts continue to bite.”

Forecast

According to the latest Glenigan Index forecast the underlying value of construction projects starting on site will remain below that seen in quarter one of this year into 2014.

“The recent pattern of activity is expected to continue throughout 2012, with investment in infrastructure and private sector building recovery offset by Government cuts which will continue to restrict health, education and social housing projects. Less money for new builds could see an increase in refurbishment work this year” said Abraham.

Abraham concluded “’More growth is predicted for commercial sectors, though sustaining this depends on general economic prospects The increase in private housing building seen over the first third of the year will slow over the next six months.”