Glenigan Index shows steady growth amid PMI downturn reports

The latest Glenigan Index of construction project starts under £100 million paints a more positive picture of UK construction activity than the recent S&P Global UK Construction PMI, which reported the sharpest fall in over five years.

The difference lies in the data itself. The PMI reflects sentiment among purchasing managers, giving a forward-looking view based on survey responses, whereas the Glenigan Index is built on robust figures of actual projects starting on site. This makes it a more grounded measure of current activity, even if it lacks the PMI’s anticipatory edge.

In the three months to July 2025, the Glenigan Index recorded a 9% rise in project starts both compared to the preceding quarter and to the same period in 2024. While the pace of recovery has slowed from the sharp gains seen earlier in the year, activity levels remain on an upward path.

Residential construction was the standout performer, with starts up 10% on the previous quarter and 25% higher than a year ago. This growth was almost entirely driven by private housing, which rose 24% quarter-on-quarter and an impressive 40% year-on-year. Social housing, however, saw a sharp reversal, falling 33% compared with the previous quarter and 24% annually.

Non-residential starts rose 7% from the previous quarter but were down 1% year-on-year, reflecting a mixed performance across sub-sectors. Office projects led the way, up 39% over the quarter and 64% annually, helped by major schemes such as the £98.8 million Republic development in Manchester’s Mayfield regeneration area (pictured). Health projects also enjoyed renewed momentum, with starts 11% up quarter-on-quarter and 20% higher than last year. Hotel and leisure starts grew more modestly, while education remained subdued despite a small quarterly rise.

Civil engineering told a split story. Starts were up 15% on the quarter but down 21% compared with last year. Infrastructure drove the quarterly gains, increasing 27%, while utilities inched up just 1%. The figures suggest that while momentum is returning, expectations for post-Spending Review activity have yet to be fully realised.

Regionally, the West Midlands was the top performer, with starts surging 40% on the quarter and 79% annually. The South East led in value, rising 22% quarterly and 9% annually, while the North West posted a 27% quarterly gain. The East of England also impressed, climbing 16% quarter-on-quarter and 47% year-on-year. London and Northern Ireland both showed quarterly growth but fell short compared with last year’s levels.

Commenting on the figures, Glenigan’s Economic Director, Allan Wilen, noted the encouraging signs, particularly in residential and office sectors, and pointed to the role of private investment in sustaining growth despite wider geopolitical uncertainties. This aligns with the recent Glenigan Forecast 2025–2027, which reported that “a renewed sense of optimism is spreading across the UK construction industry, with Glenigan’s latest UK construction forecast predicting a 24% surge in project starts by 2027.”

Taken together, the Glenigan Index and the S&P Global PMI present different snapshots of the market. While sentiment may have dipped sharply in the PMI survey, the data from Glenigan suggests that, on the ground, work is continuing to gather pace, albeit unevenly across sectors and regions.