Key Statistics: 04 Nov 2014

Construction

• The Glenigan Index was 4% higher than a year earlier in the three months to October, up slightly from 3% growth recorded last month. The index covers the value of all UK (worth up to £100m) construction projects starting on site, and was led higher by the commercial and civil engineering sectors, with office and retail work particularly buoyant. By contrast the value of residential starts was flat on a year earlier.

Economy

• Mortgage approvals in September fell to their lowest level in over a year, according to Bank of England statistics. This points to a mild cooling in the UK housing market, potentially as a result of increased expectations of a rise in interest rates early next year. Recent house price indicators have shown some moderation in house price growth; October’s Nationwide house price index found annual growth in prices of 9.0%, down from a peak of 11.8% over the 12 months to June.
• The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) private sector growth indicator fell to +19 in October from +23 last month. This was level with March 2014 as the weakest reading since July last year. However the reading remains above the long-run survey average and would point to growth continuing at or slightly below the 0.7 rise recorded by the ONS in the third quarter. 
• GfK’s consumer confidence index fell slightly in October to -2, however the reading remained close to a nine year high of +1 recorded during the summer. Confidence about the economy’s prospects for the next 12 months fell to its lowest since February, mirroring results of October’s YouGov/CEBR’s consumer confidence measure which fell to its lowest since January due to expectations of slowing growth.