Glenigan Index of construction starts to end of October 2026

Poor overall performance overshadows uptick in civils work

• The value of work starting on-site during the previous three months declined 9%, finishing 21% below last year’s levels
• Residential construction starts fell 4% against the preceding three months and dropped 29% compared with the previous year
• Non-residential project starts weakened significantly, declining 21% quarter-on-quarter and standing 22% below a year ago
• Civils work strengthened, rising 21% against the preceding three months and standing 19% above the previous year

The November Index reveals that far from a ‘Burnham Bounce’, the construction sector is actually continuing to contract as political uncertainty and economic stagnation continue to bite. Glenigan’s data shows that the value of work starting on site during the last three months declined 9%, finishing a fifth lower (-21%) compared to the same period in 2025.

Expectations surrounding the new Burnham Government were high and, whilst there have been a lot of positive noises coming from Number 10 and various Government departments, the anticipated follow-on effects from these statements have yet to materialise. Whilst there are spending commitments already being released (made during the most recent Spending Review), there are other areas which remain vague, unclear or in jeopardy from changing priorities as international tensions increase and more funding is redirected towards national security requirements. In the private sector, investor confidence remains frustratingly frosty, with little sign of a significant thaw in the immediate future.

Looking longer-term, the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement was only delivered at the very end of this Index Period, so any subsequent uptick is not reflected in this set of results. Whilst most analysts and pundits concur that this was not a budget for the ages, the commitments towards making it easier to build houses, a renewed push towards AI and Data Centres and a decision not to raise Capital Gains Tax will hopefully provide a small shot in the arm to help achieve some degree of recovery in 2027.

Commenting on the Index, Glenigan’s Economic Director, Allan Wilen says, “No doubt the industry will be frustrated that, despite a new broom in Westminster with a distinctly different approach to his two immediate predecessors, construction starts continued to drift lower during the Index period. Whilst weak non-residential and residential construction dragged overall performance down, a rise in civil engineering work should not go unnoticed as a number of important utilities projects get off the ground, particularly in the energy segment.

“Thinking about last week’s statement, Mr Healey’s ‘steady as she goes’ Budget will hopefully help to stabilise industry conditions over the coming months, especially if it tempers borrowing costs and is able to get the announced first-time buyer scheme off the ground quickly to rekindle residential activity.”

Taking a closer look at the sector breakdown…

Sector Analysis – Residential

Residential construction experienced yet another poor period of performance, with overall starts dipping 4% against the preceding three months, finishing 29% down on 2025 levels.

Drilling deeper into the numbers, the recent decline in private housing starts softened, only edging down 1% during the Index period.  However, whilst it remained the largest component of activity in this vertical, figures still remained almost a third (-28%) lower than a year ago.

On the other hand, social housing experienced a distinctly weaker period, falling 12% against the preceding three months and dropping 31% compared to the previous year.

Sector Analysis – Commercial

Glenigan data shows commercial construction experiencing a sluggish period, failing to reestablish the momentum seen in the first half of 2026.

Offices proved the most resilient vertical; whilst starts on site fell 8% against the previous three months, the numbers were up by a fifth compared to the previous year.

Retail activity also had a relatively strong Index period, declining 3% quarter-on-quarter while remaining 17% above last year’s level. The commencement of various schemes helped support sector activity,

Elsewhere, the outlook was bleak, with Industrial activity tanking, dropping 29% against the preceding three months and plummeting 44% below a year ago. Likewise, Hotels & Leisure experienced a very weak period, falling 45% against the preceding three months to finish 37% lower than a year ago.

Sector Analysis – Public Sector

Focusing on public sector verticals. Glenigan’s data reveals a comparatively moderate decline in Education activity, only dipping 7% compared with the preceding three months and remaining 4% below the previous year.

Health construction fared much worse, weakening significantly, nosediving 38% against the preceding three months and by a third (-34%) compared to 2025 results.

Community & Amenity performance was equally disappointing, whilst activity here only fell 13% during the Index period, starts finished 39% down against last year’s level.

Sector Analysis – Civils

Civil engineering proved a lone bright spot amidst the gloom, with work starting on-site rising 21% against the preceding three months to stand 19% above the previous year. This jump in activity can largely be attributed to the commencement of the £45 million Brecks Solar Farm development in Nottinghamshire.

Taking a closer look, Glenigan’s data highlights that whilst infrastructure work starting on-site fell 5% against the preceding three months and remained 14% below a year ago, Utilities activity carried the vertical, displaying a strong performance with starts on site rocketing 55% quarter-on-quarter and soaring 70% above 2025 levels. This is the data centre effect.

Regional Outlook

Taking a look at regional performance, Wales posted the strongest set of results, rising 7% during the Index period to stand an impressive 58% above the previous year. This spike can be attributed to the commencement of various schemes in the area. The North West also performed relatively well, albeit less dramatically, increasing 4% quarter-on-quarter and matching last year’s level.

It was a mixed bag elsewhere, with the East Midlands improving 5% against the preceding three months, yet remaining 8% below a year ago. Similarly, the South West edged 1% higher quarter-on-quarter but stood 31% below the previous year’s level, while the South East was broadly stable, declining 1% against the preceding three months and remaining 23% lower than a year ago.

Other regions experienced poor performance, with Yorkshire dipping 3% compared to the preceding three months to stand 3% below last year’s level. The East of England also fell 3% quarter-on-quarter and remained a dismally 37% lower than the previous year.

London, which has recently had an activity resurgence, witnessed a reversal in fortune, as the capital declined 9% against the preceding three months to finish 8% below last year’s levels. Scotland also weakened by 10% quarter-on-quarter and remained 27% lower than a year ago.

Elsewhere, the decline was far steeper. The West Midlands experienced the sharpest quarterly decline, falling 38% against the preceding three months and standing 39% below last year’s level. The North East fared little better, dropping 15% against the preceding three months, crashing out 58% below the previous year and, similarly disappointing, Northern Ireland declined 32% quarter-on-quarter, remaining 39% lower than a year ago.