Construction Industry Forecast 2026-2028

Spot growth opportunities and emerging risks in UK construction with Glenigan’s 2026–2028 industry forecast.

According to Glenigan’s Summer 2026 Construction Forecast, the UK construction market is expected to dip slightly in 2026 before returning to growth from 2027 onwards.

Glenigan data indicates that construction activity will decline by around 1% in 2026, followed by a strong rebound of 11% in 2027 and a further 4% growth in 2028 as economic conditions stabilise and investor confidence improves.

The recovery is expected to be driven by increased public sector investment, infrastructure and utilities work, and renewed private sector activity across housing, industrial, and commercial construction.

While short-term conditions remain challenging, the forecast highlights clear medium-term growth opportunities across key sectors, including education, civil engineering, and private housing.

2026-2028 Outlook:

• Industrial & Commercial: Expected to strengthen as UK economic growth gathers pace, supported by increased business investment.
• Public Investment: Increased funding in the Spending Review drives a rise in capital programmes from mid-2026.
• Civil Engineering: Boost from rise in water and electricity infrastructure investment.

• Improved consumer spending lifts private housing, retail and hotel & leisure sector starts from 2027.
• Upturn in new office construction alongside continued investment in refurbishment and remodelling projects.
• Sustained demand for logistics and modern commercial space and data centres.
• Increased public sector investment in education and health construction during the forecast period.
• Expansion in infrastructure and utilities work linked to net zero and regulatory investment cycles.

Glenigan’s Construction Forecast draws on our comprehensive database of UK construction projects, combined with proprietary modelling and market analysis to provide a forward-looking view of industry activity.

Forecasts are informed by project-level data across the construction pipeline, from early planning through to start on site, supported by macroeconomic indicators, sector drivers, and historic trends. Activity is analysed by sector, with regional breakdowns and a distinction between underlying projects, defined as those below £100 million, and major projects valued at £100 million and above. As with all forward-looking analysis, projections are indicative of trends and subject to revision.

Providing businesses with clear and easy-to-understand metrics and analysis on key industry KPIs, our reports include a biannual industry forecast, monthly sector performance analysis, construction company league tables, and sector-specific reports commissioned by our partners.