Glenigan Insight
2nd March 2010
Welcome to Glenigan's weekly customer newsletter that brings you comment on major industry developments and news updates from the past week.
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Construction falters as UK emerges from recession
Featured Region:
North West
Featured Sector:
Retail
Project News
Durkan awarded cinema contract
Midas awarded school contract
Developer sought for Ice Arena
Contractor sought for railway
Galliford Try awarded wind turbine contract
Willmott Dixon awarded stadium contract
Company News
Bigger projects boost Morgan Sindall
New CEOs aim to expand Bam brand
CBUK recoups £3m from Multiplex
Hammerson's focus turns to France
Recession-hit PC Harrington suffers 18pc drop in turnover
Lend Lease to raise £460m
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The latest economic performance figures reveal that the UK’s exit from the longest recession since the 1930s was slightly more robust than first thought, with GDP growth for the fourth quarter revised up from 0.1% to 0.3%.
Manufacturing and mining & quarrying have been among the hardest hit sectors during the recession. However, the latest quarterly data points to a possibility of recovery, albeit a slow one, with both sectors reporting a return to modest growth during the fourth quarter, although output remained sharply down on a year earlier.
Less encouragingly, adverse economic conditions and poor weather took their toll on construction output which faltered again, dropping by 1% in the final quarter of the year. The renewed weakness follows a 2% rise in investment during the third quarter as a recorded increase in repair and maintenance work offset continued weakening in new work. The decline left construction output for the year as a whole 9.4% down on 2008.
The drop in output is in contrast to the modest improvement in project starts recorded by Glenigan during the second half of last year. Whilst the project starts are off their lows seen in early 2009, the sharp fall in schemes being commissioned over the last two years is continuing to diminish the volume of work on-site as existing projects are completed.
Furthermore whilst the construction output data is disappointing, we expect the industry to gradually benefit over the coming months from the improved performance of other parts of the economy. In particular household expenditure appears to have stabilised, being 0.4% up on the third quarter and a further strengthening in consumer confidence is forecast to support a modest rise in private housing starts this year. However, as the latest data highlights the anticipated recovery in project starts during 2010 will take time to lift construction output.
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Recent performance
The decline in project starts in the North West during 2008 was led by sharp falls in private housing, industrial, office and hotel & leisure projects. This downward trend continued last year, with the value of underlying private housing and industrial project starts falling by 45% and 65% respectively, year-on-year. The value of office project starts was also halved over the same period. The absence of any office projects of significant scale is particularly noticeable.
The education and health sectors fared better. Building on increases in projects starts during 2008, the underlying value of education and health work starting on site during 2009 was respectively 17% and 38% higher than a year ago.
Infrastructure starts in the North West have begun to improve again following a poor few months. Indeed infrastructure starts for 2009 as a whole were 86% up on the previous year, in part due to work starting on the £46 million A34 Alderley Edge bypass. The flow of utility work was also strong, with the value of underlying project starts during 2009 176% up on a year ago, in large part due to a £80 million project at Sellafield. The sharp rise in civil engineering projects, combine with the increase in education and health projects, helped counter the continuing weakness in the private residential and non-residential sectors, limiting fall in the value of underlying construction starts during 2009 to just 1%.
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Prospects
Private housing has been a particularly fragile sector over the last year. Planning approvals for private housing projects remained extremely poor during the first eleven months of 2009, being 55% down on a year ago and pointing to a further weakening in project starts near term. Office construction is also set to remain weak, with the value of underlying planning approvals falling by 23% year-on-year during January to November 2009.
More encouragingly public sector related construction should remain strong near term, following recent increases in the underlying planning approvals for the education and health sectors. However, a 51% fall in detailed planning approvals in social housing projects during the first eleven months of 2009 points to the sector remaining a drag on construction activity in the region over the coming months.
Conditions in the region have remained difficult, but underlying construction starts are starting to stabilise as the region benefits from an increase in public sector and civil engineering projects. However, with Government funding for public sector projects coming under increasing pressure and private sector projects in the region continuing to struggle, any recovery in project starts will be slow to emerge. Indeed the value of underlying project starts is forecast to fall 4% this year with a further 2% decline anticipated for 2011.
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Recent performance
Retailers have been reporting difficult and deteriorating trading conditions as consumer confidence has slumped and households have reigned in their spending. Since the onset of the recession, a number of major retail chains have entered administration, while many others have announced falling sales and store closures.
British consumers are curbing their borrowing and spending in response to the deteriorating economic environment and slowing earnings growth. Household consumption has been weakening progressively over the last year and the volume of household spending in the third quarter of 2009 was 3.2% down on a year ago. Spending is expected to have remained subdued enduring the final quarter of the year.
Official statistics recorded a sharp slowing in the volume of retail sales growth during the course of 2008. Whilst, retail sales volumes have improved since April 2009, growth has remained sluggish. That said, recent retail sales data has presented an apparently conflicting picture.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) has reported strong sales in the run-up to Christmas. Their survey recorded a 6% rise in UK retail sales values and a 4.2% rise on a like-for-like basis from December 2008, when sales had dropped 3.3%, due to turmoil in financial markets hitting consumer confidence. Within this total, food sales growth picked up to 2.6%, its strongest performance since June, partly reflecting higher food price inflation.
In contrast official retail sales data recorded a more modest 3.6% rise in December sales values against a year earlier, while sales volumes rose 2.1%. The apparent gap may be attributable to the closure of many high street stores over the last year. As a result the BRC survey results are likely to boosted by a ‘survivor bias’ as surveyed retailers benefit from custom that would previously have been spent elsewhere. Furthermore in addition to the traditional Christmas boost, December retail sales volumes may also have been inflated by consumers bringing forward major purchases to avoid the January VAT increase. Certainly the VAT rise, together with poor weather, appears to have contributed to a marked weakening in retail sales during January. Retailers responding to the latest BRC survey reported that a 0.7% fall in like-for-like sales during the month; the worst January sales growth in the 15 years.
The weakening in retail sales growth has been led by falls in non-food sales and, in particular, ‘big ticket’ items, as consumers have deferred discretionary spending. In contrast food sales have held up well, although this is in part due to higher food prices. Most of the major supermarket chains have reported firm turnover growth and increased profits over the last year.
Against this background, the flow of new retail projects starting on site has faltered. The value of underlying retail construction projects fell 29% during 2008, despite a robust fourth quarter. Moreover, project starts continued to decline last year, dropping a further 29% during the year as a whole, with starts during the final quarter of 2009 31% down on a year earlier.
During 2008 non-food retail warehousing projects initially endured the sharpest decline in the value of underlying project starts, falling by 65%; and project starts declined by a further 32% in 2009. The traditional occupants of these premises are the white goods and DIY related retailers who have been hard hit by both the fall in consumer confidence and the downturn in the housing market. In addition planning restrictions have limited the scope for upgrading existing premises by installing mezzanine floors to boost floorspace and increase their appeal to traditional ‘high street’ retailers. Against the background of faltering consumer confidence and weakening retail sales, 2008 also saw a 15% decline in the value of shop & departmental projects starting on site. The decline in new projects accelerated last year, being half the level seen during 2008.
Retrenchment in new shopping centre activity has continued over the last two years, with a 10% drop in the value of underlying project starts during 2008 followed by a 64% slump last year. In addition the only major shopping centre scheme to start on site during 2008 was the Stratford City development, while 2008 also saw the completion and opening of flagship schemes in Bristol, London and Liverpool, and in autumn 2009 the major new shopping centre in Cardiff opened its doors. As a result, the pool of projects under construction has continued to dwindle, despite work commencing on the Stratford scheme.
In contrast the flow of new supermarket projects held firm last year, after a relatively subdued 2008. Project starts during 2009 were 2% up on a year earlier and accounted for half of retail project starts during the year. The major supermarket chains have reported continued earnings growth and remain committed to store expansion and refurbishment programmes.
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Prospects
Retail construction fortunes will remain closely tied to trends in household consumption over the next two years. Many high street retailers have reported a fall in profits over the last year and retail spending is expected to remain weak into 2010. CB Richard Ellis has recorded a softening in rents over the course of last year, with shop rents falling at 10.5% over the year to the fourth quarter 2009. In addition, a number of high profile retail bankruptcies and store closures by struggling chains have also added to the stock of available vacant shop premises. A survey by the British Retail Consortium estimated that last summer vacant premises accounted for 12% of high street floorspace, against 7% at the start of last year, and the study anticipated that vacancy rates would rise to 15% by the end of 2009. Understandably, retail developers will remain cautious until the demand for retail space improves.
In contrast, the major supermarkets are performing better than most retailers and many are pressing forward with expansion or refurbishment plans. Indeed, J Sainsbury has raised £445 million via a share placing and convertible bond issue to fund an acceleration of its expansion programme. The company plans to increase its gross floorspace by at least 15%, equating to 2.5 million square feet of additional selling area, by March 2011. Furthermore, the current economic climate is helping value-based grocers. According to TNS Worldpanel, Asda, Aldi and Lidl have all increased their market share. The rise of the value-based grocers is creating new construction opportunities. Aldi has indicated that it will spend £1.5 billion over the next five years on expanding its store network in the UK and Ireland.
Nevertheless underlying planning approvals weakened considerably during the latter part of 2008 and the first half of last year. This was accompanied by a marked increase in the number of projects being put on hold. Glenigan has identified some £1.8 billion worth of work that has been placed on hold over the last year. Following the contraction in the development pipeline, the value of underlying project starts during 2009 was 31% down on a year ago.
Looking forward, a rebound from the current extremely depressed levels is anticipated during 2010 as development finance becomes more widely available and the major supermarket trends press on with their capital expenditure programmes. However, a more sustained recovery will be dependent upon a marked turnaround in household spending power and consumer confidence. Unfortunately retail sales growth is expected to remain sluggish over the next two years. Weak average earnings growth and rising unemployment are expected to hold back household spending, whilst tax increases will further erode households discretionary spending.
In addition January 2010 sees the re-introduction of the 17.5% standard VAT rate which will both constrain household spending and hit retailers’ margins. Furthermore, The Centre for Economics and Business Research think tank predicts that a Conservative Government would raise VAT to 20% as part of its strategy for reducing the budget deficit. Such a move would dampen the pace of recovery in consumer spending and exacerbate the pressure on retailers’ margins. Against this economic background, the anticipated recovery over the next two years will still leave the value of underlying projects down by a third on 2007 levels, while large £100 million plus shopping centre developments are expected to remain especially scarce.
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Project News
Durkan awarded cinema contract
Durkan Ltd has been awarded the main contract for the restoration of the Phoenix Cinema in East Finchley, London. The £800k scheme for Phoenix Cinema Trust Ltd has been designed by HMDW Architects Ltd. Work is due to start on site April 2010.
Project ID: 08475295
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Midas awarded school contract
Midas Construction has been awarded the main contract for the construction of an extension to Chieveley Primary School in Chieveley, Newbury. The £2.7 million scheme for West Berkshire Council has been designed by Pottinger Architects. Work is due to start on site April 2010.
Project ID: 09255834
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Developer sought for Ice Arena
Applications to tender are currently being invited for inclusion on a select list of developers for the construction of a £7 million Ice Arena at Cardiff International Sports Village for Cardiff County Council. The developer will be expected to design, build and operate the facility once constructed.
Project ID: 10074731
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Contractor sought for railway
Transport Scotland is currently inviting application to tender for the design, build, finance and maintenance (DBFM) of a railway, seven stations and associated road infrastructure between Newcraighall in Midlothian to Tweedbank in the Scottish Borders. The value of the contract is £230 million. Works are expected to start in the 4th Quarter 2013.
Project ID: 09383694
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Galliford Try awarded wind turbine contract
Galliford Try Renewables has won a contract for fitting wind turbine systems at up to six Morrison's retail chain sites across the UK. This project could lead on to a national roll out of wind turbines, and other renewable energy technology, at other stores all over the UK. The scheme is currently at an early stage.
Project ID: 10074783
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Willmott Dixon awarded stadium contract
Willmott Dixon Ltd has been awarded the main contract for phase one at Gateshead International Stadium. The £1.84 million scheme has been designed by S & P Architects and will see the refurbishment to changing rooms and wash closet block, construction of tensile canopy to east stand and a two-storey extension at south-east side of sports hall to include cafe, classrooms, banqueting and media facilities. Work is due to start on site March 2010.
Project ID: 10048568
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Company News
Bigger projects boost Morgan Sindall
Morgan Sindall currently has nearly £1 billion of major project work at preferred bidder stage after changing its strategy to focus on winning bigger jobs. Executive chairman John Morgan pointed to the pipeline this week as better news for the company, which saw its turnover fall almost £300m in 2009. At the same time last year the firm had no work at all at preferred bidder stage.
Executive chairman John Morgan told CN his company had made a concerted effort to win larger more complex jobs, as it provided less competition in the bidding process and longer-term security of workload. The firm's order book totalled £3.2bn at 31 December 2009, £500 million down on the prior year. Mr Morgan said: "The £900m (at preferred bidder status) has happened because we are going for bigger, more specialised jobs than we used to. It is less competitive."
Morgan Sindall is currently preferred bidder on the Thames Tideway scheme, the Hull Building Schools for the Future programme, E.On's Central Networks framework and a mental health PPP in Tayside. The executive chairman said the firm was also "pricing a very healthy amount" of additional work on larger projects. Morgan Sindall's latest results showed its pre-tax profit for the year to 31 December 2009 dropped 28 per cent from £62.3m to £44.7m. Turnover dropped 13 per cent to £2.2bn, from £2.5bn last year. The firm attributed the fall to significant drops in activity in its fit-out and affordable housing divisions.
Mr Morgan said his biggest concern at present was government spending cuts, with about 50 per cent of Morgan Sindall's workload having come from the public purse over the past 10 years. "The big question mark is over government spending - where will spending fall in the future and when will it fall," he said. "All we can do is be ready for lots of different scenarios." Mr Morgan said the push for bigger work had been helped by the £26m acquisition of Amec's construction business in June 2007 which allowed Morgan Sindall to take on projects of greater scale and complexity.
However, he said the firm would not be turning its back on smaller projects. "We are looking at all markets and all jobs," he said. "We are unusual in that we are in every part of the construction market. It gives us security as some markets drop." Referring to the £4m of paper losses he and Berkeley boss Tony Pidgley have made on share trading during the recession, he said: "It shows the confidence that Tony Pidgley and I have in our businesses. "I might have made a paper loss, but if you look at my dividend payments I would have got a lot less if I had sold my shares and put the money in the bank."
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New CEOs aim to expand Bam brand
The Dutch-owned Bam group has said it will play on the combined strengths of its subsidiaries in a bid to boost growth in the coming year as it announced the appointment of new chief executives for its construction and civils arms. Graham Cash will become chief executive at Bam Construct and Stephen Fox will take up the same role with Bam Nuttall from 1 April with the aim of further expanding the brand in the UK, the group revealed last week. Current Nuttall chief executive Martin Rogers said he would be stepping down from the board in order to concentrate on his responsibilities as a director of parent company Royal Bam Group NV.
Mr Rogers said: "BAM continues to become more influential in the UK. We aim to continue our sound performance, although market conditions will remain challenging in all construction sectors. "We intend to do this by developing the Bam brand and growing our market share in both our existing and emerging market sectors. "This will involve continuing to use the combined strengths and expertise of the Bam companies in the UK and across Europe." Bam Construct and Bam Nuttall have a combined turnover in the UK of £1.75 billion and together employ over 5,700 people.
Mr Rogers added: "By making the most of the synergies between group companies we can offer added value." Mr Fox, his successor, has been with the company since 1989 and a member of the management board since 2007. Current Bam Construct chief executive Richard Gregory will also step down on 31 March, retiring after 43 years with the firm. During this time Mr Gregory has held positions ranging from contracts manager to managing director. He has been chief executive since 2004.
His successor Mr Cash has worked for Bam since 1986. Mr Cash became a director of Bam Design in 1991 and took over as regional director of the south-east division in 1997. He was promoted to the board in 1998 and has since been heading up the design arm of the business as well as the company's supply, services engineering and technical services divisions. Meanwhile, the Royal Bam Group NV recently announced a profits warning ahead of releasing its financial results on 4 March. It said that profits were expected to be about £26 million compared to previous forecasts of £88m.
While this performance has been blamed on the group's Dutch housing division, which has suffered from significant writedowns similar to those borne by UK housebuilders, it is unclear whether there will be any implications for Bam's UK businesses.
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CBUK recoups £3m from Multiplex
Steelwork contractor Cleveland Bridge has managed to claw back almost half of the £6 million it was ordered to pay Multiplex over the troubled construction of the new Wembley Stadium. At a Court of Appeal hearing in London last week, CBUK successfully argued that preliminaries had been incorrectly measured in the 2008 trial. While it was the only argument out of five disputed technical points that the Darlington-based contractor won, the victory will see it recoup about £3 million from the sum Multiplex was awarded 18 months ago. The long-running dispute could still be months away from being completely settled, however, with a decision on costs yet to be made.
The two firms' legal bill had become a significant part of the dispute by the end of the sevenmonth trial, in which costs are understood to have exceeded £22m. The companies now have until 19 March to make submissions to the Court of Appeal about how much of Multiplex's costs should be paid by CBUK. In September 2008, High Court judge Lord Justice Jackson - who ruled CBUK owed the former Australian-owned company £6.15m in damages - decided the steel contractor should have to pay about £2m of Multiplex's legal costs for the trial.
But CBUK now has the option to appeal this, and Multiplex is also considering whether it will ask the court for the figure to be increased. McGrigors director Yuri Botiuk, who acted for CBUK, said: "The one thing that has not been decided is the cost of the entire proceedings. "This is going to be very important, because our view is that our client had no choice but to defend this action." Once submissions are made by both companies next month, the matter will have to wait to be listed for a further hearing with the court before a decision is made. The legal battle between the two companies over the stadium project has been ongoing for more than five years.
he dispute arose out of CBUK's £60m subcontract with Multiplex, now owned by Brookfield Europe, to erect steelwork at the Wembley site. CBUK left the site following a row with Multiplex in July 2004. Dutch steel firm Hollandia, who had been the runner-up when the contract was awarded, completed the project. The main trial - which was to determine how much the pair owed each other - commenced in the High Court on March 10, 2008. It is understood Multiplex was seeking as much as £40m in damages, while CBUK's counterclaim was estimated at £15m.Permission to appeal the final ruling had been denied by Lord Justice Jackson following his ruling, but last year the appeals court granted both sides leave to pursue a total of five points.
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Hammerson's focus turns to France
Hammerson will not begin construction on any major new UK projects this year and has instead turned its focus to France where tenant demand is stronger. The property giant this week confirmed it would not start any new developments in the UK until at least 2011, despite signs of improvement in property values in the second half of 2009. Hammerson said it was also too early to look at procuring contractors for its UK development projects, which include the Eastgate Quarters in Leeds, Sevenstone in Sheffield and sites in Southampton and Swansea.
But the London-based developer said it would instead soon be starting construction work on schemes in Paris and Marseille. Chief investment officer Peter Cole said: "The French market has been less affected by the recession - tenant demand is stronger there." In the meantime the firm will continue discussions with potential occupiers for its schemes in the UK, as well as pushing for planning approvals and signing development agreements.
Hammerson has entered into a development agreement with Southampton City Council for its 24,000 sq m Watermark WestQuay scheme and is now working on the designs for the project. WestQuay will include retail units, a cinema, a hotel and a residential building comprising up to 240 apartments. Mr Cole said: "In the UK we are continuing to advance schemes in terms of design and planning so hopefully once the economic situation is right we can begin construction quickly."
He said the firm would review the UK situation at the end of 2010. He added: "At the moment the UK is recovering strongly and hopefully that continues." Hammerson will soon start construction on a £30 million redevelopment in rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré in Paris, which is a fully let scheme. Enabling work is also set to begin on the 52,000 sq m Les Terrasses du Port in Marseille, one of the largest shopping centre developments anticipated in France over the next few years.
The £400m scheme will comprise 150 stores, 2,850 car parking spaces and a 260 m restaurant terrace overlooking the sea. Tenants have already committed to lease about 40 per cent of the centre, which will open in 2014. The developer's portfolio is split across the two countries, with 66 per cent in the UK and 34 per cent in France. Hammerson this week reported a pre-tax loss of £451.3m for the year to 31 December 2009 - an improvement on its pre-tax loss of £1.6 billion the year prior. The loss was largely as a result of a 9 per cent drop in the value of its property portfolio, which led to writedowns of £596m. However, the values recovered in the second half of 2009 - rising 6 per cent.
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Recession-hit PC Harrington suffers 18pc drop in turnover
PC Harrington is the latest mid tier contractor to show the effects of the recession in its results after new figures revealed its turnover fell 18 per cent last year. In its accounts for the year to 31 May 2009, the company reported turnover of £171 million, compared to £202m the previous year. Pre-tax profit was down £1m at £11.7m. The Middlesex-based contractor, ranked 66th in the 2009 Construction News Top 100, said the drop in turnover had been predominantly caused by the global economic downturn, which hit its business activities particularly hard in the second half of the year.
PC Harrington Contractors, the concrete contracting arm of the group, accounted for the majority of the fall in turnover - with its sales dropping from £151.5m to £126.8m. Pre-tax profit in the division also fell from £7.5m to £4.6m. But the group was able to trim its wage bill by just under 10 per cent - from £26m to £23.5m - after making redundancies and ordering pay cuts. In January 2009, PC Harrington cut site wages by 15 per cent. A letter sent out to staff at the time said that pay would drop from £10-an-hour to £8.50, adding that cuts had to be made to help the firm in its "efforts to win work against stiff competition in difficult conditions".
In the latest accounts the company said it was now "well positioned to withstand the current economic downturn having already taken measures to reduce costs throughout the various businesses." PC Harrington group had more than £105m of work in hand at the year end, including £70.5m for its contracting arm. Results from mid-tier contracting firms have been revealing the scale of the difficulties they faced last year. Yorkshire-based Henry Boot announced that it expected a 41 per cent drop in turnover for 2009, while SDC, Forth Holdings, Ogilvie and William Davis saw their collective turnover fall by more than a quarter.
PricewaterhouseCoopers construction strategy partner Chris Temple said medium-sized contractors were being squeezed by clients and larger contractors. He said: "The larger contractors have got less work to do so they are looking to the smaller contracting opportunities. "The result is a lot of pain for the medium tier of contractors."
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Lend Lease to raise £460m
The Australian parent of Bovis Lend Lease is set to raise £460 million from existing shareholders. In its announcement to the Australian stock exchange overnight, Lend Lease said it expects the weak conditions in the UK market to continue and that the UK will underperform in the medium term. This downbeat view is despite the fact it has identified £3.2 billion of potential projects in the UK, although no details of these were given.
Announcing a first half profit of £117 million from turnover of £3.2 billion, Lend Lease expects profits for the full year to be broadly similar to the £175 million earned in 2009. Following the capital raising, Lend Lease will have net cash of £32 million. There was no specific mention of the UK business in the results release.
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Promotion
HEALTH & SAFETY IN CONSTRUCTION 2010
Safety = Best Practice = Good Business
Thursday 25th March 2010, America Square Conference Centre, London, EC3
Health and safety continues to be a massive challenge to the UK construction sector, with the industry accounting for the third highest rate of fatal injuries in 2008/9, according to the HSE. Progress has been made but, until fatality and injury rates are zero, there is still much to be done. Construction News’ essential annual event, Health & Safety in Construction 2010, will provide you with the guidance and practical information that you need to improve safety on site and ensure you are fully up to date on current health and safety regulations and best practice on construction sites.
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James Dobson, Head of Health & Safety, UKCG
Paul Hanks, Senior Safety, Health, Environment and Quality Coach, Rok Group
Register Today at www.cnhealthandsafety.co.uk quoting priority code XP-GLEN-NL1
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Allan Wilén, economics director, Glenigan
Allan joined Glenigan to head the development of the new market intelligence service for Glenigan subscribers. Allan has over twenty years of experience analysing and forecasting the UK construction industry. He was previously Economics Director at the Construction Products Association and responsible for all economic aspects of the Association’s activities. This included briefing members, the media and Government on the commercial implications for the construction industry of the changing economic environment and the delivery of the Government’s expenditure plans. Allan was also responsible for developing the wide range of regular economic reports published by the Association, including its Construction Industry Forecasts, which provide members with timely and valuable market intelligence.
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