Glenigan Insight
19th January 2010
Welcome to Glenigan's weekly customer newsletter that brings you comment on major industry developments and news updates from the past week.
Click on the links to read the full story.
Weak finish to a tough year
Featured Region:
West Midlands
Featured Sector:
Community & Amenity
Project News
Development partner sought for £80m housing regen scheme
Bam Nuttall scoops £190m rail deal
CABE warns of dumbing down on FOA's New Street Station
Ballymena Health and Care Centre by Keppie Design and Gareth Hoskins Architects
'Concerned': CABE critical of new Stonehenge visitor centre plans
Chiltern Railways announces £250M improvements and new main line to be built by BAM Nuttall
Company News
Balfour Beatty in a 'strong' position with £13.7bn order book
Laing O'Rourke wins £153m Australian rail electrification job
Bovis Homes forward sales 34pc up on last year
Bellway secures 86pc of 2009/10 sales target
Lambeth bathroom framework re-valued at £52m
Styles & Wood cautious despite trading in line with expectations
Poor weather in the run-up to Christmas added to the construction industry’s problems at the end of a difficult year. The Glenigan Index for December recorded a 9% year-on-year drop in underlying project as a number of scheduled project starts were postponed to the New Year. Near term, the current cold snap will have further delayed projects during January. However, industry prospects are expected to gradually brighten over the course of 2010 as private sector confidence starts to recover, although government funded projects will be increasingly constrained by budgetary restrictions.
Increases in public sector and civil engineering work and a steadier private housing sector have supported the overall flow of construction projects starting on site in recent months. London, the North East and South West of England and the West Midlands have particularly benefited in recent months from the strengthening in public sector building and civil engineering projects. In contrast the earlier boost provided to the project starts in Scotland and Wales faded during the final quarter of 2009.
Near term, a weak private sector is expected to remain a drag on project starts. In addition the current cold snap will have further delayed scheduled projects starts during January. However, looking ahead the flow of private sector work is forecast to improve during 2010. In contrast, the pick-up in public sector starts seen since April 2009 has begun to lose momentum and Government funding cuts will further restrict the flow of public sector schemes over the medium term. Accordingly, whilst underlying construction project starts are off recent lows, the anticipated recovery over the next two years will be slow and fragile.
Weak household earnings and consumer confidence, combined with limited mortgage availability are expected to restrict the pace of recovery in new house sales during 2010. Nevertheless, the pick-up in project starts during the autumn indicates that housebuilders are preparing to capitalise on the anticipated modest improvement in market conditions and a gradual recovery in new residential projects is forecast over the course of this year.
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Recent performance
Construction starts have fallen back across a number of key sectors in the West Midlands over the last two years. The value of underlying construction starts fell 8% in 2008, with an exceptionally poor fourth quarter a third lower than a year earlier. Project starts have deteriorated further during the 2009, falling by an estimated 18% against the previous year. The private housing, industrial and retail sectors have been among the weakest performing sectors in the region. The value of underlying private housing starts fell by 39% last year and dropped by a further 23% during the first eleven months of 2009. Industrial projects, a traditional stalwart of construction in the West Midlands, held steady during 2008, but have subsequently plummeted 85% during the eleven months to November 2009. The retail sector turned down ahead of the credit crunch and has now endured three years of decline that have halved the value of projects starting on site.
A moribund housing market and the decline in new private housing projects has had a knock-on effect on the social housing sector, restricting access to Section 106 funding and frustrating efforts to take forward mixed-tenure and part-ownership developments. As a result, the flow of new social housing starts fell by 8% last year. The fall would have been more substantial, but for a number of refurbishment projects for the existing housing stock and a £56 million project student accommodation project for Aston University. A flurry of social housing refurbishment has also help counter the absence of new build projects during 2009, with the value of project starts during January to November 2009 42% up on a year earlier. The education sector was a growth area for much of 2008, with the value of project starts rising during the first nine months of the year as a number of BSF projects started on site. However, a dearth of project starts during the final three months of the year cut the increase in the value of project starts for the year to 4%. Project starts during January to November 2009 have been unable to match the flow of schemes seen last year and were 8% down on a year ago. In contrast, construction starts in the health sector, having fallen by 14% during 2008, have bounced back strongly during 2009. The value of underlying health project starts during the first eleven months of this year was running at almost double that of a year earlier, with started schemes including the £19 million Malvern Community and the £16 million Moseley Hall hospitals.
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Prospects
Although conditions in the West Midlands construction market remain tough, prospects do appear to be brightening. The value of underlying construction starts fell by 37% during the first nine months on a year earlier (see table below), but as anticipated the region has enjoyed a partial recovery during the final quarter of the of the year. However, whilst a tentative recovery in project starts is aniticipated for 2010, the weak level of project starts endured during 2008 and 2009 will continue to depress construction output in the region. Industrial building has historically accounted for a significant proportion of projects in the West Midlands, reflecting the importance of manufacturing to the regional economy and the region’s favoured status as a location for major distribution facilities. During 2008, industrial projects accounted for 13% of projects started, twice the UK average.
Unfortunately, key manufacturing industries in the region, such as motor vehicle production, have been hard hit by the economic downturn, with many suspending production. Faced with weak domestic and overseas demand and surplus capacity, few manufacturers are planning to invest in new industrial premises. In addition, sluggish consumer spending is also curbing retailers’ appetite for large distribution facilities, while the uncertain economic outlook and the limited availability of debt finance will continue to restrict the flow of new speculative developments. Against this background detailed planning approvals for industrial projects in the West Midlands fell by 60% last year, and during the first ten months of 2009 were 67% down on the level seen a year ago.
The downturn in the West Midlands’ private housing sector has also been dramatic, with the value of underlying project starts during 2009 running at a third of the level seen during 2006. The value of private housing projects securing planning approval has also fallen sharply, halving in 2008 before falling by a further 69% during the first ten months of this year. Nevertheless, the region’s exposure to the private housing sector, should help to brighten the region’s prospects as conditions in the wider housing market gradually improve and developers reactivate stalled projects. The development pipeline for public sector related construction activity has improved in this year a largely disappointing performance during 2008. Social housing projects securing detailed planning approval rose 5% during the first ten months of 2009 ( and the value of work starting on site has risen by around 40%). The value of underlying education securing planning approval almost trebled during the first ten months of this year, while the approval of health projects rose by 40%. Whilst the pick up in public sector approvals should help stabilise new project starts near term, the probability of approved schemes starting on site as planned are likely to lengthen as 2010 progresses. In light of deterioration in government finances such projects will be vulnerable to review after next year’s General Election.
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Recent performance
A key factor behind a 12% fall in sector starts last year was a slowing in the flow of prison-related projects, with the value of projects starts halving against 2007. The flow of prison projects subsequently improved during the first nine months of 2009. Other parts of the sector fared better last year. Some £100 million of police station projects started on site during 2008 and the area has remained active so far this year. Law courts remained a growth area during 2008, with the value of project starts rising by 16% to around £100 million over the previous year, but subsequently starts in this area have been scarce during the current year.
However, MoD work was the most significant growth area within the sector during 2008, with the value of underlying military buildings projects starting on site rising by 61% and accounting for a fifth of the starts in the sector. The value of MoD work subsequently stabilised during the first nine months of 2009. The only large project to start on site this year is a £150 million contract for the refurbishment of military buildings in East Anglia. The sector’s fortunes have varied markedly across the UK. Many regions have experienced a fall in community & amenity construction starts. In contrast, London, the South East, the North East, and Wales have experienced a steady stream of projects.
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Prospects
Near term, sector prospects are expected to remain bright. Indeed, after a weak start to the year, the flow of new projects has strengthened since March. Furthermore, based on planned projects currently being tracked by Glenigan, we expect the flow of project starts to remain firm during the final quarter of the year (see table below).However, whilst there are currently projects in the development pipeline, the sustained decline in the value of detailed approvals is a concern for the sector’s prospects over the medium term. The value of underlying planning approvals fell 32% during 2008 and was 28% lower during first ten months of 2009.
Furthermore the sector is likely to be especially vulnerable to the anticipated tightening in public sector capital expenditure, as limited funds are prioritised towards areas highest on the political agenda. In particular, following the drop in project starts over the last year, the Government’s prison building programme appears to be a potential Achilles’ heel for the sector with the risk of further delays to planned projects. As a result, project starts are forecast to fall back by 21% next year, prior to a modest recovery in starts during 2011.
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Project News
Development partner sought for £80m housing regen scheme
London Borough of Enfield is seeking a development partner to build more than 360 homes for its Ladderswood Way estate redevelopment, worth £80 million. The core contract comprises of building 236 private housing units for sale and 129 social rented units as well as associated landscaping and construction of social infrastructure. The selected partner will also be expected to progress the scheme straight to a detailed planning application within a timeframe agreed in competitive dialogue. Three firms will be selected for competitive dialogue following the submission of tenders by 18 February. The project is a key component of the new Southgate masterplan.
Project ID: 10031853
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Bam Nuttall scoops £190m rail deal
Bam Nuttall has won a £190 million contract to create a new main line from London Marylebone station to Oxfordshire and the Midlands. Chiltern Railways selected the contractor for the Evergreen 3 project to upgrade the main line between Banbury and London, upgrade the existing line between Bicester and Oxford, and create a link between the Chiltern line and the Bicester-to-Oxford line.
This includes the reconstruction of stations at Bicester Town and Islip, the addition of new platforms at Oxford and the creation of a station at Water Eaton Parkway. The project will be delivered in stages, with the mainline journey time improvements being delivered from 2011. The new line to Oxford, including Water Eaton Parkway, is expected to open by 2013, subject to Transport and Works Act approval.
Project ID:09124903
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CABE warns of dumbing down on FOA's New Street Station
CABE has raised fears that Foreign Office Architect's (FOA) proposed redevelopment of New Street Station in Birmingham could be watered down by client Network Rail. The government's design watchdog cautioned the client and local authority against whittling down the design detail on the scheme, urging them to keep the concept architect on the job.
CABE said: 'We can already see signs of some slippage and are concerned that the cumulative effect of many minor changes could result in a significant loss of quality.'We can already see signs of some slippage and are concerned that the cumulative effect of many minor changes could result in a significant loss of quality.''We [.] urge the client to reappoint the concept architect to provide executive design guidance over all aspects of the station design'.
But a spokesperson for Network rail refuted that FOA, which is reportedly about to split, was being sidelined: 'The architects who developed the concepts are working with us on the detail and will continue to do so until the design is fully complete. 'CABE have given their wholehearted support to our planning application for the Gateway project, which aims to transform Birmingham New Street station into a 21st century transport hub.'We are confident that the Gateway project will turn New Street into the world-class station that our passengers and the city deserve.' Project architect at FOA Christof Trenner said: 'We went through a pretty long process with CABE with various reviews and we are very happy with what we received in the end'.
Project ID:00331435
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Ballymena Health and Care Centre by Keppie Design and Gareth Hoskins Architects
[FIRST LOOK + PLANS] Keppie Design and Gareth Hoskins Architects have submitted plans for this new £14 million healthcare centre in Ballymena, County Antrim. Appointed through the PCCI Framework for Northern Ireland Health Estates, the scheme is the first of five new healthcare projects being designed for the Northern Health Trust by Keppie and the recently honoured Hoskins (AJ 04.01.10). Bringing together a range of primary, intermediary, diagnostic and community health facilities, the new building sits on 'a prominent position' along the street front of the existing Braid Valley Hospital site.
The departments are split across two floors which are organised around an internal atrium and an open courtyard. A third floor houses offices. The main diagnostic suites, including x-ray, physiotherapy and dentistry, are arranged on the ground floor opposite children's services and pharmacy and community areas. The first floor is divided into two zones. The first groups seven GP practices around the central atrium, alongside a large shared treatment department. The second accommodates a suite of sessional outpatient and mental health departments.
Project ID:10019809
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'Concerned': CABE critical of new Stonehenge visitor centre plans
CABE has criticised Denton Corker Marshall's (DCM) latest Stonehenge visitor centre plans, raising concerns about the canopy roof and landscaping.
The government's design watchdog felt the proposed £20 million Wiltshire scheme lacked a 'clear landscape approach to integrate [the centre]' into the countryside, claiming some of the 'pedestrian routes around the car park [seemed] rather tortuous'. The commission also picked out the centre's undulating roof, which has been designed to float over two stand-alone pavilions, fearing it might 'channel wind and rain under it rather than offer the level of protection visitors [would] expect'. 'We have concerns about both the strategic and detailed approach to both landscape and architecture'. CABE added that DCM's analogy that the thin structural roof supports represented a forest did not 'seem to be conceptually strong' and had 'generated an architectural aesthetic that has not been convincingly resolved technically'. Despite CABE's attack (click here to read the full design review), the scheme on Airman's Corner plot is highly unlikely to be redesigned and has already been recommended for approval when it comes before Wiltshire Council's planning committee next Wednesday (20 January 2010). In a statement released to the AJ by the project's key backer, English Heritage, a spokesman said: 'Innovative architectural designs will always polarise opinion, and often nowhere more so than within the architectural world itself.
'For example, while CABE has its view, a panel of local architects - the Wiltshire Design Forum - has congratulated our architects for the design of the building. Such a divergence of views is not uncommon with high-profile schemes. He added: 'The Stonehenge project has to overcome a unique set of challenges. including its setting in a unique World Heritage landscape, archaeological considerations, traffic flows and differing considerations of special interest groups. [and] the needs of visitors to one of the world's most popular tourist attractions. 'This has required a pragmatic approach and, following widespread consultation, we maintain the current plans offer the best solution.' DCM landed the contest to design the new facility back in February - effectively the second time after the demise of its original £65 million proposals in 2007 - seeing off Bennetts Associates and Edward Cullinan Architects in the process.
Previous story (12.10.09)
AJ exclusive: Images of new Stonehenge Visitor Centre
[FIRST LOOK] The AJ can reveal the first official pictures of Denton Corker Marshall's (DCM) new £20 million Stonehenge visitor centre in Wiltshire. The designs were unveiled as a planning application for the visitor centre on the Airman's Corner plot - along with an application to close the A344 that runs next to the Stones - was made to Wiltshire Council. The scheme features a perforated undulating canopy, supported by a forest of thin columns, which sits 'lightly in the landscape above a pair of self-contained pods' on a limestone pavement. The transparent, glazed box will house a shop and a café while the other solid 'pod' - clad in locally sourced chestnut wood - will be home to the exhibition space (click here to see early sketches). DCM landed the contest to design the new facility back in February - effectively for a second time following the demise of its original £65 million proposals in 2007 - seeing off Bennetts Associates and Edward Cullinan Architects in the process.
Stephen Quinlan, director of architects' Denton Corker Marshall, said: 'Designing a visitor centre at a site of such importance is both a major challenge and a serious responsibility. Our proposal, above all, seeks not to compromise the solidity and timelessness of the Stones, but to satisfy the brief with a design which is universally accessible, environmentally sensitive, and at the same time appears almost transitory in nature. He added: 'If once back at home, a visitor can remember their visit to the stones but can't remember the visitor centre they passed through on the way, we will be happy.
Project ID:91220604
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Chiltern Railways announces £250M improvements and new main line to be built by BAM Nuttall
The Department for Transport (DfT) has granted Chiltern Railways an extension to their rail franchise in return for making £250M of improvements, including a £190M contract with BAM Nuttall to create a new main line from London to the Midlands. The £250M improvements to the line out of London's Marylebone station to Birmingham will see journey times down more than 20%. Subject to planning consents, the project could also see Oxford linked to the Chiltern mainline by a stretch of new railway to be constructed at Bicester, allowing new direct passenger services to operate between Oxford and London Marylebone. Chiltern Railways awarded BAM Nuttall a £190M contract for the Oxford link. Known as Evergreen 3, the project will involve the upgrade of the Banbury to Marylebone main line, the upgrade of the existing line between Bicester and Oxford and the creation of a new link between the Chiltern line and the Bicester to Oxford line. The centrepiece of the Oxford link would be Water Eaton Parkway in North Oxford; an integrated transport hub linked to the A34, A40 and Oxford city centre.
Infrastructure upgrade
Mainline journey time improvements will be delivered from 2011 and the possible new main line to Oxford, including Water Eaton Parkway could open by 2013. In total, over 50 miles of track will be upgraded to 100mph running. The infrastructure upgrade will be supported by new trains designed for faster acceleration, the introduction of mainline style carriages for the Birmingham route, the opening of additional platforms at Birmingham Moor Street station and new ticketing technology. "This upgrade scheme is a powerful testament to the remarkable renaissance that rail has undergone." says Transport secretary Lord Adonis. The scheme is funded by Network Rail, who will reimburse the cost through the payment of a facility charge over the next 30 years, initially by Chiltern Railways whose franchise expires in 2021/2 and then by the future franchisee. Passengers would not be landed with higher fares to pay for the line and it would be paid for "through extra customers", said Chiltern Railways chairman Adrian Shooter. The DfT said the scheme will cut rail journey times along the busy M40 corridor, thereby making rail more competitive with road travel. "This is the biggest passenger rail project for several generations not to call on the taxpayer for support," said Shooter. "Working closely with Network Rail, we are going to create a new main line railway for the people of Oxfordshire and the Midlands. This deal demonstrates that real improvements to rail services can be paid for without public subsidy by attracting people out of their cars and onto trains."
Journey times slashed
The project will see journey times of just 92 minutes from London Marylebone to Birmingham Snow Hill slashing the present journey time by 25 minutes. Banbury will be just 50 minutes away (presently 67mins). There will also be faster trains from the M40 park and ride hubs at Warwick Parkway (J15) and Haddenham & Thame Parkway (J7). The extra seven-and-a-half years of Chiltern's 20-year franchise, which was dependent on investment in the franchise, has been confirmed with the official announcement of the project. The improvements would bring big economic benefits on the route by attracting investment and encouraging tourism, as well as cutting journey times and increasing capacity, said transport secretary Lord Adonis. "The Government is committed to improving our railways and this upgrade scheme is a powerful testament to the remarkable renaissance that rail has undergone in recent years," he added.
Project ID:09124903
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Company News
Balfour Beatty in a 'strong' position with £13.7bn order book
Balfour Beatty has said that trading and its financial position remain strong with a forward order book of around £13.7 billion. In a trading update ahead of its full year results for the year ended 31 December 2009 Balfour Beatty said its average net cash for the second half of the year being in excess of £300 million. The firm said the acquisition of Parsons Brinckerhoff in October last year was the realisation of a number of key strategic objectives and has given the group significantly enhanced capabilities and presence across the entire life cycle of major infrastructure assets. Balfour Beatty has re-evaluated how it will report the group's business in its full year results and has decided it will report the business in four segments: construction services, professional services, support services and infrastructure investments.
The construction services division had a particularly strong year with good performances from the building businesses, especially in the US.Professional services has been transformed by the acquisition of Parsons Brinckerhoff and Balfour said integration work has continued to proceed well, including the integration of Heery in the US and Balfour Beatty Management in the UK. Support services, which comprises utilities, facilities management, rail renewals and highways maintenance activities, has performed well in the year, and with recent wins finishes the year with a strong future order book. The pipeline of bidding activity in Infrastructure Investments in the UK remains strong - earlier this week, Balfour announced it had reached financial close on the £450 million Blackburn with Darwen and Bolton Councils Building Schools for the Future programme. The trading update said: "We have benefited in 2009 from continued expenditure in infrastructure markets and finish the year with a strong order book. "The breadth of our portfolio, enhanced by the acquisition of Parsons Brinckerhoff, means our group is resilient and we remain confident about the prospects for the group overall, in spite of the economic uncertainties in some of our markets."
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Laing O'Rourke wins £153m Australian rail electrification job
Laing O'Rourke, in a joint venture with O'Donnell Griffin, has won a £153 million contract to carry out the Sunbury Rail Electrification Project in Victoria, Australia. Works on the project, which is part of a scheme to improve rail services on the Sydenham-Sunbury corridor, is due to start in early 2010. Laing O'Rourke was recently awarded a major rail electrification project in Auckland, New Zealand. It is also currently delivering electrification works for Queensland Rail in the Queensland coalfields and for RailCorp across New South Wales.
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Bovis Homes forward sales 34pc up on last year
Bovis Homes said today that it has forward sales for 643 homes in 2010 - 34 per cent greater than the same point in 2009. In a trading update Bovis said a pick-up in sales momentum occurred in the second half of the year with 754 sales in the first half and 1,049 homes in the following six months. During 2009, the Group sustained its strong performance in private home reservations, achieving 1,801 private reservations during the year, some 82 per cent ahead of the prior year's 989 private reservations. As at 31 December 2009, Bovis held housing work in progress equivalent to 986 homes. Bovis said it had made good progress in securing further construction cost savings and has re-entered the residential land market during the latter part of 2009 following a successful period of de-gearing and supported by its share placing. Good progress has been made across the geographical areas of focus and the group has acquired four sites in late 2009, with terms agreed in principle on a further 15 sites.
Towards the end of 2009, Bovis initiated discussions with its banking syndicate in regards to its existing banking facility. The group now has credit approval subject to documentation for a replacement £150 million syndicated facility which would mature in September 2013 and which will reduce its effective interest cost. The new facility will provide Bovis with the financial flexibility to allow it to benefit from its strong balance sheet by continuing the process of re-investment in residential land, to increase the output capacity. In its 2009 results Bovis bosses anticipate writing off around £4 million of a one-off fee paid in December 2008 in relation to the existing banking agreement as an exceptional item. Further information will be provided once the refinancing exercise is completed. The trading update said: "The group continues to expect trading conditions in 2010 to be subdued relative to historical levels, given ongoing economic uncertainty. "Mortgage approval volumes are slowly rising, but mortgage providers continue to require record high levels of deposits, particularly from first-time buyers. "This all said, longer-term market demand and supply trends remain positive."
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Bellway secures 86pc of 2009/10 sales target
Bellway has now secured 86 per cent of its 2009/10 sales target with average sales prices slightly ahead of expectations. At the group's AGM today chairman Howard Dawe said reservations in the five months to 31 December 2009 are 54 per cent up on the same period a year earlier. But he added: "With concerns over mortgage availability and unemployment in particular, we await the spring selling season with caution." Bellway's net cash position at 31 December 2009 stood at £51 million. The board will now selectively increase work in progress expenditure where appropriate and continue to pursue new land opportunities, but only at attractive margins. Meanwhile non executive director David Perry retired at the meeting after having served on the board since 1999. Mr Dawe said: "David has contributed greatly to Bellway's performance over the years and the board would like to thank him for all his efforts on behalf of the group. "David has been replaced by John Cuthbert who joined the group as a non executive director on 1 November 2009."
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Lambeth bathroom framework re-valued at £52m
The London Borough of Lambeth has increased the estimated value of its recently advertised bathroom adaptation framework by nearly £50 million. The three year framework was advertised last week with a value of £3.9m but published additional information today suggesting that it could be worth up to £52m. The Borough cited expressions of interest from other London Boroughs as the reason for the amendment. The framework could now be extended by a further year and to as many as 10 other Boroughs.
A maximum of 20 firms and a minimum of 5 will be appointed to the agreement. The scope of works includes the supply and installation of shower formers, specialist baths, shower doors, shower water heaters, ventilation and lighting systems, and tiling. The contractors will also have to carry out associated building work such as altering or upgrading plumbing, heating and electrical systems, floors, doors, windows, ceilings and walls. Firms have until 17 February to submit pre-qualification questionnaires and will be invited to tender on 22 March.
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Styles & Wood cautious despite trading in line with expectations
Styles & Wood today said its turnover and pre-tax profit for 2009 are likely to be in line with expectations, but it remains cautious about 2010.In a trading update for full year 2009 fit-out specialist Styles & Wood said its four divisions - storefit, storeplanning, storecare and storedata - have continued to trade in line with management expectations. The refinancing completed on 29 June 2009 has ensured that the Group has a strong balance sheet to weather the current challenging market environment.
Net cash at 31 October 2009 was £6.3 million which is better than was expected at the time of the refinancing, and this improvement continued through to the end of the year. Despite the tough market conditions, Styles & Wood secured projects with key customers during the year including working on 251 Morrisons' cafes, converting 40 Co-op stores into a new format and working on 34 Barclays branches. The trading update said: "The board believes that with its robust financial position, coupled with its strong, loyal customer base, the group is well placed to take advantage of any market upturn and maintain its market leading position. "However, the markets in which the group operates continue to remain challenging and therefore the board maintains its cautious outlook for 2010."
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Allan Wilén, economics director, Glenigan
Allan joined Glenigan to head the development of the new market intelligence service for Glenigan subscribers. Allan has over twenty years of experience analysing and forecasting the UK construction industry. He was previously Economics Director at the Construction Products Association and responsible for all economic aspects of the Association’s activities. This included briefing members, the media and Government on the commercial implications for the construction industry of the changing economic environment and the delivery of the Government’s expenditure plans. Allan was also responsible for developing the wide range of regular economic reports published by the Association, including its Construction Industry Forecasts, which provide members with timely and valuable market intelligence.
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